Tomorrow marks the start of the twentieth FIFA World Cup. Taking place in Brazil for the first time since 1950 the build-up has been dogged by protests from Brazilian's regarding their hosting of the competition and allegations of corruption within FIFA regarding Qatar's successful World Cup bid for 2022. But putting all that aside it is very hard not to be excited. The World Cup is something that only comes around once every four years and despite my usual indifference to international football it is always something which I fervently look forward to. This years competition is extremely hard to predict but that's what I'm going to attempt to do. Let's start with the most important thing, the winners:
Winners: Germany
A bold prediction when you consider no European team has ever won a World Cup on South American soil but Germany have such a strong side that I feel they can put that voodoo to bed by overcoming the climate and thirty-one other teams to win the World Cup for a fourth time. With players like Thomas Müller, Mesut Özil and Mario Götze - among others - they have quality oozing out of every pore and I expect them to lift the trophy on the 13th of July. It's hard to discount current holders Spain, hosts Brazil or a Messi-inspired Argentina but I feel Germany have a team that can deal with those threats and march on to glory.
The Group of Death: Group B
Often in World Cup's there has been one group that has stood out, one group that was labelled with the tagline of the "Group of Death". This years competition is different since there seem to be three groups vying for that unwanted title. Group D: which contains Uruguay, Italy, England and Costa Rica has the best average ranking of any of the groups. Group F contains Germany, Portugal, Ghana and the United States of America, a group which could undoubtedly spring a surprise or two and was only usurped by Group D for the best average ranking with the most recent release of the FIFA rankings. But it is Group B that has me most intrigued. With Spain - who have won the last three major tournaments they have taken part in (2008 & 2012 European Championships and 2010 World Cup), Netherlands - who were the runners-up to Spain in that 2010 World Cup, Chile - an extremely talented team accustomed to the South American climate and Australia - a side that always seem to deliver performances at major tournaments that belie their lowly ranking - this is my clear group of death. When you can't guarantee the progress of a side as talented as Spain with any great conviction it is a sign that this is a very tough group.
Overachievers: Chile
Continuing on with the Group B reverence there are many prospective teams that could overachieve in this World Cup but I've plumped for Chile. Belgium have been touted so strongly for so long that I no longer think they can overachieve. Colombia were another side I considered but the loss of Radamel Falcao will hit them hard. Falcao is undoubtedly their most important player and although I expect them to make it through their group I don't see them making a massive impression in the knockout stages without him. So that left me with Chile. Stuck in what I consider to be the real "Group of Death" I expect them to surprise most people and progress to the knockout stages at the expense of one of the big European teams. Chile have only lost twice in the past year and those defeats came at the hands of Brazil and Germany. Their otherwise unbeaten run in this period has seen them attain a very credible draw against group opponents Spain as well as sending Uruguay, Ecuador and England (at Wembley) to defeats. Juventus' Arturo Vidal and Barcelona's Alexis Sanchez are clearly their star players but they have more strength in depth than a lot of people realise. Just making it through to the knockout stages, considering their group, would be seen as a great achievement and I believe that is an attainable goal.
Underachievers: Netherlands
It would be easy to label England as the underachievers but with so many expecting them to exit in the Group Stage it's hard to see what could qualify as an underachievement. Losing to Costa Rica and finishing bottom of the group? Surely even England can't sink that low. So I went with Netherlands. They have an extremely strong side on paper boasting the likes of Robin Van Persie, Arjen Robben and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar in their 23-man squad. And with new Manchester United boss Louis Van Gaal in charge you would be forgiven for thinking they have a good chance of making a real impact. It is not inconcievable that they could achieve great things in Brazil but I see them falling at the first hurdle. With my previous prediction of Chile upsetting the apple cart in Group B, I see the Dutch as the team most likely to fall victim to a Chilean surprise. Spain will probably have enough about them to get through which would leave Netherlands to join Australia as the teams knocked out in Group B. This would have to be considered a massive underachievement for a team as talented as Netherlands, especially when you consider they were runners-up just four years ago.
Player to Watch: Lionel Messi
Some people would say this is a cop out. Calling arguably the best player in the world the player to watch out for seems far too easy a statement. But Messi, for some reason, has a lot to prove to certain sectors of the footballing community. They feel he cannot be considered an all-time great until he turns in top quality performances for Argentina at the World Cup. I do not share this opinion however I do expect this to be the year that Messi expunges those doubts. Argentina should have a strong World Cup when you look at their squad and the relative ease with which they should progress from the group stage and I expect Messi to play a large part in their success. I used the Telegraph predictor before I wrote this article and it saw Argentina beat Spain and make it all the way to the final before losing to Germany. If that were to come to fruition surely this would have to be considered a success even without lifting the trophy? It would be a personal achievement for Messi to get that far and if he plays as well as I expect him to it is a definite possibility. He is my player to watch because I think this is the tournament where he finally silences his doubters for good.
It will be interesting to revisit this article once the World Cup is done and dusted to see whether these predictions rang true or not. Either way I expect it will be a great tournament with shocks and entertainment aplenty.
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